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Black makeup Super Tuesday: A state-by-state guide to the frontrunners, issues and prizes at stake


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Black makeup Super Tuesday: A state-by-state guide to the frontrunners, issues and prizes at stake

No matter the outcome, the Super Tuesday Democratic primary elections will be a turning point in the race to determine which candidate will face Donald Trump in November. This year, 14 states are voting on Super Tuesday, including the nation’s most populous states, California and Texas. Of crucial importance, we will see the impact of former…

Black makeup Super Tuesday: A state-by-state guide to the frontrunners, issues and prizes at stake

Black makeup

No matter the outcome, the Super Tuesday Democratic primary elections will be a turning point in the race to determine which candidate will face Donald Trump in November. This year, 14 states are voting on Super Tuesday, including the nation’s most populous states, California and Texas. Of crucial importance, we will see the impact of former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg’s non-traditional, self-funded run, that has seen him invest up to $400m to win support in many of the states voting on Super Tuesday.

In order to win any delegates (a candidate needs to amass 1,991 delegates to achieve the party’s nomination) candidates have to win at least 15 percent of the vote in the state. 

There are enough delegates at stake that a strong showing for senator Bernie Sanders could cement his spot as Democratic nominee. At the same time, should he fail to overcome his top rivals, the race could become a serious competition between two or potentially even three candidates. 

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Here’s a state-by-state breakdown to keep you informed heading into Super Tuesday. All demographic numbers are from the Centre for American Progress’ “States of Change” report. 

Alabama

The Yellowhammer state has 61 total delegates – including 9 superdelegates – up for grabs on Super Tuesday. 

Demographically, Alabama is one of six states – along with the District of Columbia – where black Democratic voters are the majority. Democratic voter composition in Alabama in 2016 was 71 per cent black, 26 per cent white and three per cent other races. 

According to 2016 Census data, Alabama has a slightly higher than average population of individuals 65 years of age and older – almost 20 per cent versus the 19 percent average. The state’s median household income is more than $10,000 less than the national average, $42,830 versus $53,657 nationally.   

FiveThirtyEight predicts former Vice President Joe Biden will take the state, giving him a 61 percent chance at victory in the state. Mr Sanders is the next most likely to take the state with a 21 percent chance of victory, and Mr Bloomberg is in third with a 17 percent chance of victory.

Arkansas

There are 31 pledged delegates available to win in Arkansas including five superdelegates.   

Demographically, Arkansas’ Democratic voters are 69 per cent white, 36 per cent black, three per cent Hispanic and two per cent other races.

According to 2016 Census data, the state has a slightly higher than average population of individuals over the age of 65 – 21 per cent versus the national average of 19 per cent – and a median household income of $41,262 more than $10,000 less than the national average of $53,657. 

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FiveThirtyEight predicts Mr Sanders has the best chance to win the state. He was given a 38 per cent chance to win the state. Mr Bloomberg is the next most likely to win, with a 28 per cent chance of victory. Mr Biden has a 25 per cent chance to win.    

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The most recent poll examining the Arkansas electorate from Talk Business & Politics/Hendrix College Poll reported that Mr Bloomberg had a 3.2 percent lead over Mr Sanders in the state. 

Just under 20 per cent of respondents said they’d vote for Mr Bloomberg, while 16.4 per cent said they’d vote for Mr Sanders and 18.5 per cent said they’d vote for Mr Biden.     

California

This is a massive prize. California, the country’s most populous state, has 415 pledged delegates and 79 superdelegates up for grabs.

California’s Democratic voters are 50 per cent white, 26 per cent Hispanic, 15 per cent Asian, eight per cent black and one percent other races. 

Census information from 2016 shows that 17 percent of the state is over the age of 65, just under the national average of 19 percent. The state’s median household income is $61,933, which is $2,276 higher than the national average. Despite this, the state’s poverty rate, 14.5 per cent, is slightly higher than the national average of 13.6 per cent. 

Mr Sanders is overwhelmingly favoured in polling to win California.

FiveThirtyEight gives Mr Sanders an 89 per cent chance to win, with poll averages predicting Mr Sanders will win between 24 per cent and 43 per cent of the vote and win an average of the state’s 227 pledged delegates. Every other candidate is at risk of falling under the 15 per cent viability threshold. The closest runner up, Mr Biden, is only expected to win an average of 17 percent of the vote and an average of 83 delegates. Mr Sanders and Mr Biden are the only candidates whose predicted averages exceed the 15 percent viability threshold. 

Colorado

The Centennial State has 67 pledged delegates on the line and nine superdelegates.

Colorado’s Democratic voters are 75 per cent white, 15 per cent Hispanic, six per cent black, and four per cent Asian and other races.

Census data from 2016 shows that the state has a population of individuals 65-year-old and over that is 2.4 percent lower than the national average of 18.9 per cent. The state’s median household income is $61,303, $7,676 more than the national average. The state’s poverty rate is 2.6 per cent lower than the national average of 13.6 per cent. 

FiveThirtyEight predicts Mr Sanders will win Colorado with 31 per cent of the vote and earn an average of 35 delegates.  

Maine

Maine has 24 pledged delegates with three PLEO delegates available to win. 

The state’s Democratic voter demographic makeup is 95 per cent white, one percent black, one per cent Hispanic and two per cent Asian and other races. 

FiveThirtyEight predicts that Mr Sanders has a 67 per cent chance to win the state. The next closest runner-up is Mr Bloomberg with a 10 per cent chance at success, then Mr Biden and Ms Warren at eight per cent each. 

Massachusetts 

Massachusetts – Ms Warren’s home state – has 91 pledged delegates, including 12 superdelegates. 

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The state Democratic voter demographic makeup is 80 per cent white, eight per cent black, seven per cent hispanic and five per cent Asian and other races. 

FiveThirtyEight predicts Mr Sanders has a 58 per cent chance of winning the state. Ms Warren – who is the state’s senator – has a 25 per cent chance to win. The next closest candidate is Mr Biden with an eight per cent chance of victory. Mr Sanders is predicted to win an average of 35 delegates from the state. 

Minnesota

Minnesota – Senator Amy Klobuchar’s home state – has 75 pledged delegates, including 10 superdelegates. It is also a place where Mr Trump narrowly lost in 2016 and is at the top of Republican target lists.

The state’s Democratic voter demographics are 84 per cent white, eight per cent black, five perc ent Asian and other races, and two per cent Hispanic. 

FiveThirtyEight predicts the Minnesota race is likely to go to Mr Sanders, now that Ms Klobuchar is out. The next closest candidate is Ms Warren with a three per cent chance to win. 

North Carolina

Long a battleground state in the general election, there are 110 delegates up for grabs in North Carolina, including 14 superdelegates. 

The demographics of the state’s Democratic voters is 52 percent white, 41 percent black, four percent Hispanic and four percent Asian and other races. 

FiveThirtyEight predicts that Mr Sanders is the most likely to win, with a 43 percent chance to take the state. Mr Biden is the next most likely to win, with a predicted 36 percent chance of victory. After that, Mr Bloomberg has a 19 percent chance to win and Ms Warren is given a two percent chance. 

Oklahoma

Oklahoma has 37 pledged delegates, including five superdelegates. 

The state’s Democratic voter demographics is 66 per cent white, 20 percent black, nine per cent Asian and American Indian, and five per cent Hispanic.

FiveThirtyEight predicts a close race in Oklahoma. Mr Sanders leads the pack with a 35 percent chance to win. Mr Biden and Mr Bloomberg are tied, both with a possible 30 percent chance of victory, and Ms Warren is the next closest with a three percent chance to win. 

Tennessee

Tennessee has 64 pledged delegates, including eight superdelegates. 

The Democratic voter makeup in Tennessee is 55 percent white, 41 percent black, two percent Hispanic and two percent Asian and other races. 

FiveThirtyEight predicts Tennessee will be a toss-up between either Mr Biden or Mr Sanders. Both have been given a 39 percent chance of victory. The next closest candidate is Mr Bloomberg with 17 percent, and Ms Warren at three percent.

Texas

As the second most populous state in the US, Texas has 228 pledged delegates, including 30 superdelegates.  It is also the second most sought-after state in terms of electoral college votes. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win here was Jimmy Carter in 1976.

The Lone Star State’s Democratic voters are 39 percent white, 29 percent Hispanic, 27 percent black and five percent Asian and other races. 

FiveThirtyEight predicts Mr Sanders will win the state with a 52 percent chance of victory. Mr Biden was given a 35 percent chance of victory and Mr Bloomberg’s chances of winning are 10 percent. Mr Sanders is expected to win an average of 84 delegates from the state, and Mr Biden is predicted to win 74. 

Utah

Utah has 29 pledged delegates, including four superdelegates. 

Utah’s Democratic voter base is 83 percent white, 11 percent Hispanic, four percent Asian and other races, and two percent black. 

FiveThirtyEight predicts Mr Sanders will have an overwhelming victory in Utah, giving him an 87 percent chance of winning. His next closest competitors are Mr Bloomberg and Ms Warren, who both have a four percent chance of victory in the state. 

Vermont

Vermont – Mr Sanders’ home state – has 16 pledged delegates including two superdelegates.  

Vermont’s Democratic voter base is 95 percent white, two percent Hispanic, two percent Asian and other races and one percent black. 

FiveThirtyEight predicts it is a virtual certainty that Mr Sanders will win the state.

Virginia

Virginia has 99 pledged delegates, including 13 superdelegates. 

The state’s Democratic voter base is 54 percent white, 32 percent black, eight percent Asian and other races and six percent black. 

FiveThirtyEight predicts Mr Sanders has the best chance of winning the state, giving him a 48 percent chance of victory. Mr Biden was given a 27 percent chance at winning the state, and Mr Bloomberg was given a 22 percent chance of victory. 

American Samoa 

American Samoa, a US territory in the South Pacific, has six delegates. The territory does not have superdelegates. 

FiveThirtyEight predicts that Mr Sanders has the best chance of winning the territory, giving him a 40 percent chance of victory. Mr Biden has a 27 percent chance of winning and Mr Bloomberg has a 20 percent chance of victory.

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